Octopus Competitive Intelligence

In competitive intelligence, we’re told to scrutinise our competitors. We must analyse every move and dissect every strategy. But what if this hyper-critical approach is actually holding you back? Why overthinking your competitors hurts your growth potential. Too much focus on what others are doing can lead to what could be called  analysis paralysis by pessimism . You start to see every new feature, pricing change, and rebrand by a competitor as a direct threat. The result? Reactive decision-making. Instead of charting your course, you’re constantly looking over your shoulder. The truth is that overanalysing competitors causes two big problems in market analysis. You Stop Seeing the Bigger Picture When you’re too critical of others, you overlook macro trends. A competitor’s new product launch may feel threatening. But is it aligned with the market’s broader direction? Or are they chasing a short-term win that distracts them from long-term growth? Instead of worrying if their move ...

Breaking the Hindsight Trap: Avoiding Bias in Competitive Intelligence and Strategic Planning: Weekly Winning Strategies Hindsight bias is a big problem in your competitor analysis and strategic planning. When we look back on competitors’ moves or market shifts, some think, and some even say,  “I could have seen that coming!”  The bias makes past events seem more predictable than they actually were. It leads some to overestimate their ability to predict complex outcomes. Here’s why breaking the hindsight trap in competitive intelligence is important: “Intelligence analysis is about reducing uncertainty, not achieving certainty. Beware of hindsight bias—it fools you into believing that outcomes were inevitable, blinding you to the complexity and unpredictability of reality.” — Richards J. Heuer Jr.,  Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Missed Learning Opportunities Assuming a competitor’s move was “obvious” in hindsight ignores the real factors that led to it. Instead of i...

Give the game away to reveal your hand too early: Weekly Winning strategies “Give the game away” — it’s when a company, either by sheer oversight or miscalculation, reveals its hand in the market. It is an accidental reveal of strategy, plans, or weaknesses. Others can quickly exploit them. When competitors give the game away, they essentially hand over their blueprint. It’s the kind of slip-up a savvy analyst can spot a mile away, instantly turning what might seem like a standard press release, product update, or executive interview into an opportunity for strategic leverage. Here’s how companies often give the game away and what to do about it: 1. Product Launches with Roadmap Hints When companies drop a new product, they often hint at what’s next. Phrases like “We’re just getting started” or “This is just the first step” are gold mines. They can suggest an entire development pipeline and reveal their thoughts about scaling. Competitors can monitor these clues to develop counterstrat...

Uncover What’s Missing: The Strategy-First Approach to Competitor Analysis: Weekly Winning Strategies When it feels like something’s missing in your competitor analysis, chances are you’re not wrong. We often focus too much on surface-level metrics. The revenue, market share, product updates, and social media followers. Or what your competitor is quoting as its price that day. Uncover what’s missing, and don’t try and hide from the hard stuff. These indicators may tell you where your competitor stands today. But they won’t give you the insights to understand  why  they’re winning or  how  they plan to stay on top. Here’s the reality. If your competitor analysis doesn’t link tactics to strategy, it will confuse things. You’re watching a game without knowing the rules. So, what’s missing? Let’s explore three areas that can give us an edge. They will turn basic competitor tracking into a real advantage. Distinguish Strategy from Tactics Many competitor analyses fixate o...